Physics Today 12, 11, 18 (1959); https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3060564
My purpose in these remarks is to speculate on the role of energy in the “Asymptotic State of Humanity”—that is, the state toward which we are moving, inexorably, because man's urge to multiply is limitless whereas his resources are finite. In my talk I draw very heavily from many authors, in particular, Palmer Putnam, Hans Thirring and, above all, Harrison Brown, who has given much ingenious thought to the matters which I discuss. I choose to dwell on energy; first, because as physicists our basic subject of study is energy; and, second, because the character of the asymptotic state of mankind—whether it will be a bare existence or a passably abundant life—will depend centrally on our capturing an inexhaustible energy supply, either by learning how to burn the seas (fusion) or to burn the rocks (fission) or to trap the sun's energy in a practical way.
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2. 2. Hans Thirring, Energy for Man (Indiana University Press, Bloomington, 1958). Google Scholar
3. 3. Harrison Brown, The Challenge of Man's Future (The Viking Press, New York, 1954). Google Scholar
4. 4. Sir Charles Darwin, The Next Million Years (Doubleday, Garden City, New York, 1953). Google Scholar
5. 5. Harrison Brown, James Bonner, and John Weir, The Next Hundred Years (The Viking Press, New York, 1957). Google Scholar
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A thermionic converter using uranium fission as the heat source has been demonstrated at Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory. , Google Scholar
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10. 10. Thirring op.cit., p. 275. This figure agrees with Thirring's estimate that two square miles of collector would be required to produce $109 kwh/year$ of electricity from the sun. Google Scholar
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12. 12. Ibid., p. 89. H. C. Hottel estimates a cost of $1130/kw or more but in making this estimate assumes that Carnot efficiency rather than Rankine efficiency is available. If the costs of transmission (say from the Sahara to London) and storage are included, this figure could be much higher—perhaps$2000/kw or more. Google Scholar
13. 13. H. Brown and L. T. Silver, Proceedings of the International Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy, VIII, 129 (United Nations, New York, 1956). Google Scholar
14. 14. Keith Brown, private communication. If these higher estimates prove correct, the burnup cost is still small; however, the inventory costs would become very troublesome unless the inventory is derived from relatively abundant sources of $U+Th.$ Google Scholar
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17. 17. Perhaps it should be pointed out that if only D‐T can be made to go so that $Li0$ must be used as a blanket material in fusion reactors, the same problem of high inventory costs will ultimately face fusion, as well as fission, reactors. Google Scholar
18. 18. The manganese bath experiments have been done by R. Macklin and G. deSaussure of Oak Ridge National Laboratory and reported in a paper entitled, “Measurement of η of U‐233 by the Manganese Bath Experiment”, American Nuclear Society Meeting, Session 18.2a, Gatlinburg, Tennessee, June 15–17, 1959. Google Scholar
The critical experiments have been done by D. W. Magnuson and R. Gwin, “Comparison of Critical Experiments for the Determination of Eta of U‐233”, Trans. Am. Nuclear Soc. 2, No. 1, 146 (1959). Google Scholar
19. 19. Population Bulletin XV, 21–22 (Washington, D.C., March 1959). Google Scholar
1. © 1959 American Institute of Physics.